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Evaluation of Preoperative Therapy for Pancreatic Cancer Using a Prognostic Nomogram

¹ Department of Surgical Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, USA
² Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, USA
³ Department of Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, USA

Correspondence: Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Murray F. Brennan, MD, Department of Surgical Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, 1275 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021, USA; E-mail: m-brennan{at}mskcc.org

Background: Theoretical benefits of preoperative chemoradiation therapy (preop CRT) for pancreatic cancer include improved efficacy, resectability, and patient selection. The goal of this study was to evaluate the applicability of a nomogram, which was developed for patients undergoing resection without preop CRT and which incorporates several post-resection pathological factors, to a population of patients who received preop CRT prior to resection.

Methods: From 1994 to 2004, 82 patients with biopsy-proven, radiographically localized adenocarcinoma of the pancreatic head underwent preop CRT followed by pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD); 50 concurrent patients underwent PD without preop CRT. Mean nomogram-predicted disease-specific survival (DSS) rates were compared with observed DSS rates from the time of resection.

Results: Despite having more locally advanced tumors on initial staging (21 vs. 8%; P < .05), patients who received preop CRT had smaller resected tumors (mean 2.3 vs. 3.1 cm; P < .01), were less likely to have T3 tumors (54 vs. 80%, P < .01), were less likely to have positive lymph nodes (29 vs. 58%, P < .01), and had fewer positive lymph nodes (mean .4 vs. 1.9, P < .01), all factors that imply treatment effect and favorably impact on nomogram-predicted DSS. Observed DSS was similar to predicted DSS in both groups.

Conclusions: The similarity in observed and predicted DSS following resection in patients who received preop CRT suggests that the effects of preop CRT—whether treatment, selection, or no effect—are reflected by the nomogram. The ability of the nomogram to evaluate the effects of preop CRT on survival is limited by the potential effects of preop CRT on factors within the nomogram.

Key Words: Pancreatic cancer • Prognosis • Nomogram • Preoperative therapy • Neoadjuvant therapy • Chemoradiation therapy

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