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10.1245/s10434-007-9779-8
Annals of Surgical Oncology 15:906-914 (2008)
© 2008 Society of Surgical Oncology
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Original Article

Tumor Necrosis Rate Adjusted by Tumor Volume Change Is a Better Predictor of Survival of Localized Osteosarcoma Patients

Min Suk Kim, MD1, Soo-Yong Lee, MD4, Wan Hyeong Cho, MD4, Won Seok Song, MD4, Jae-Soo Koh, MD1, Jun Ah Lee, MD3, Ji Young Yoo, MD2 and Dae-Geun Jeon, MD4

1 Department of Pathology, Korea Cancer Center Hospital, Seoul, Korea
2 Department of Radiology, Korea Cancer Center Hospital, Seoul, Korea
3 Department of Pediatrics, Korea Cancer Center Hospital, Seoul, Korea
4 Department of Orthopedic Surgery, Korea Cancer Center Hospital, 215-4, Gongneung-dong, Nowon-gu, Seoul, 139-706, Korea

Correspondence: Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Dae-Geun Jeon, MD; E-mail: dgjeon{at}kcch.re.kr

Background: We assessed whether new parameter that considers both tumor volume change and necrosis rate predicts metastasis-free survival of localized osteosarcoma patients. We also evaluated relationship between tumor volume change and necrosis rate or metastasis-free survival.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 151 patients with stage II osteosarcoma who were treated with surgery and neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The tumor volume change was measured and calculated based on pre- and postchemotherapy magnetic resonance images. The mean metastasis-free interval was 83.1 months. We calculated adjusted tumor necrosis rate as following formula: 100–(100–necrosis rate) x stchemotherapy/prechemotherapy tumor volume. Survival and logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the correlation among size parameters, tumor necrosis rate and survival.

Results: The 5-year metastasis-free survival rate of 151 patients was 71.4% (95% CI, 67.7–75.1%). American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage IIB (RR 2.27; 95% CI, 1.11–4.62; P = 0.025) and poor adjusted tumor necrosis rate (RR 2.02; 95% CI, 1.05–3.89; P = 0.035) independently correlated with metastasis-free survival period. Further, tumor volume change independently correlated with necrosis rate. Decreased tumor volume could predict good response, with sensitivity of 80.2%, specificity of 68.6%, and positive predictive value (PPV) of 74.7%. Increased or stable tumor volume could predict poor response, with sensitivity of 68.6%, specificity of 80.2%, and PPV of 75.0 %.

Conclusion: The necrosis rate adjusted by the tumor volume change is an independent prognostic factor in osteosarcoma. This adjusted tumor necrosis rate may serve as a basis for risk-adapted therapy in combination with other prognostic factors.

Key Words: Osteosarcoma • Histological response • Volume change • Prognosis







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