Annals of Surgical Oncology, Vol 4, Issue 7 551-556, Copyright © 1997 by Society of Surgical Oncology

ARTICLES

Prediction of recurrence and survival by post-resection CA 19-9 values in patients with adenocarcinoma of the pancreas

R. C. Montgomery, J. P. Hoffman, L. B. Riley, A. Rogatko, J. A. Ridge and B. L. Eisenberg
Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19111, USA.

BACKGROUND: CA 19-9 levels are useful for the diagnosis of patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma. However, interest has recently turned toward its use as a prognostic indicator. The purpose of this study is to determine whether postoperative CA 19-9 levels predict disease-free survival (DFS) and median survival (MS) in patients after resection. METHODS: Between 1988 and 1996, 40 patients underwent resection for pancreatic adenocarcinoma and were evaluated with postoperative CA 19-9 assays. Eight patients had low preoperative levels of CA 19-9 (< 2) and were excluded. RESULTS: CA 19-9 levels are good predictors of DFS and MS. Patients whose postoperative CA 19-9 values normalized by 3 to 6 months (< 37 U/ml) had longer DFS (24 vs. 10 months, p < 0.04) and MS (34 vs. 13 months, p < 0.04). Patients with postoperative CA 19-9 values less than 180 U/ml at 1 to 3 months had a similar DFS (19 vs. 5 months, p < 0.0009) and MS (34 vs. 13 months, p < 0.0001) compared to patients with normal values at 3 to 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative measurements of CA 19-9 were the best predictors of DFS and MS. Values < 180 U/ml at 3 months were as predictive as normal values by 3 to 6 months postoperatively. Consequently, CA 19-9 levels should be obtained for use as a stratification parameter in phase III trials.

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