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Original Article |
1 Clinica Chirurgica 2, Dipartimento di Scienze Oncologiche e Chirurgiche, Universitàdi Padova, Via Giustiniani, 2, 35128 Padova, Italy
2 Istituto Oncologico Veneto, Padova, Italy
3 Pathology Section, Department of Oncological and Surgical Sciences, University of Padova, Padova, Italy
Correspondence: Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Simone Mocellin, MD, PhD; E-mail: mocellins{at}hotmail.com.
| ABSTRACT |
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Methods: The clinical records of 246 patients who underwent SNB at our institution were used for this analysis. The following clinicopathologic variables were considered: the patients age and sex and the tumors histological subtype, Breslow thickness, Clark level, ulceration, mitotic index, lymphocyte infiltration, regression, angiolymphatic invasion, microsatellitosis, and growth phase. The results of SVM-based prediction of SLN status were compared with those achieved with logistic regression.
Results: The SLN positivity rate was 22% (52 of 234). When the accuracy was
80%, the negative predictive value, positive predictive value, specificity, and sensitivity were 98%, 54%, 94%, and 77% and 82%, 41%, 69%, and 93% by using SVM and logistic regression, respectively. Moreover, SVM and logistic regression were associated with a diagnostic error and an SNB percentage reduction of (1) 1% and 60% and (2) 15% and 73%, respectively.
Conclusions: The results from this pilot study suggest that SVM-based prediction of SLN status might be evaluated as a prognostic method to avoid the SNB procedure in 60% of patients currently eligible, with a very low error rate. If validated in larger series, this strategy would lead to obvious advantages in terms of both patient quality of life and costs for the health care system.
Key Words: Melanoma Sentinel node biopsy Support vector machine Sentinel node status Prognostic factors Predictive factors
| INTRODUCTION |
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Presently, sentinel lymph node (SLN) status is the single most significant prognostic factor for patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I and II melanoma.3 Moreover, by identifying patients with subclinical lymph node metastases, surgeons can submit patients to therapeutic lymphadenectomy earlier in their natural history while sparing patients with negative SLNs the morbidity associated with radical lymph node dissection. Finally, oncologists can administer potentially useful adjuvant treatments when the disease burden is still limited.4,5
Despite these considerations, the other side of the coin does exist and is multifaceted. A false-negative (FN) rate of 15% has been attributed to the SNB procedure (with standard pathologic evaluation of SLNs), although molecular detection of SLN micrometastasis by means of reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction might significantly reduce this misclassification rate.6 Currently, 18% to 22% of patients undergoing SNB will have a positive result at histological analysis, whereas in the large majority of cases (approximately 80%) this surgical procedure does not change the therapeutic decision-making process. This fact should be evaluated in the light of other considerations.
First, no general agreement has been reached regarding the effect of SNB on patient survival, either as a direct effect of the early lymphadenectomy or as a consequence of the subsequent adjuvant treatment;712 accordingly, most investigators agree that SNB should be considered a diagnostic/prognostic (not therapeutic) procedure until the results from randomized trials designed to address this issue are available.1315 Second, SNB, which generally requires a minimally invasive surgical operation, is associated with a small but definite risk of morbidity (5%12%), which is mainly represented by hematoma, seroma, lymphatic leakage, wound infection, nerve damage (greatest in the case of head and neck melanomas), and allergic reaction to the dyes used.1620 Third, SNB, which requires the intervention of three specialists (a surgeon, a nuclear medicine physician, and a pathologist) is an expensive procedure with an estimated average cost of US$8,000 to $14,000.21,22 Finally, a question has been recently raised on whether the SNB procedure might itself cause an increased occurrence of in-transit melanoma metastases.23,24
Overall, it can be stated that the availability of a prognostic tool for the identification of patients at higher or lower risk of harboring subclinical SLN metastasis would be of great help in the management of patients with cutaneous melanoma. Unfortunately, the high rate of FN prediction that characterizes the statistical models so far used makes impossible their clinical implementation for the selection of patients who are candidates for SNB.
Here we report our findings regarding the application of a statistical learning method, i.e., support vector machine (SVM), to analyze the clinicopathologic variables of 246 patients who underwent SLN biopsy for clinical stage I or II cutaneous melanoma. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether such a novel statistical approach might better predict SLN status as compared with logistic regression, a statistical method traditionally used for the analysis of data with a binary outcome (e.g., SLN positivity/negativity).
| MATERIALS AND METHODS |
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1.0 mm in Breslow thickness or <1.0 mm with at least one adverse histopathologic feature (ulceration or significant regression) or Clark level IVV. Patients were grouped by the presence or absence of metastatic melanoma in at least one SLN: therefore, cases of one or more positive SLNs were considered positive.
Sentinel Node Biopsy
The SNB procedure is described in detail elsewhere.25,26 Briefly, the day before SNB, lymphoscintigraphy was performed by using the LFOW gamma camera (Siemens, IL). A mean volume of .19 mL (range, .11.28 mL) of 99mTc-labeled human albumin (Nanocoll Amersham Sorin, Milano, Italy) was intradermally injected into two perilesional sites. A final dose of 102.7 MBq (range, 96155 MBq) was administered. Early and late images were obtained at 20 and 120 minutes, respectively. The skin site corresponding to the highest emission point was marked. On the day of surgery, 20 minutes before skin incision, .7 to 2.5 mL (mean, 1 mL) of Patent Blue dye (Patent V; Jacopo Monico, Mestre, Italy) was intradermally injected around the scar. A handheld Care Wise gamma camera (Morgan Hill, CA) was used to measure background and SLN radioactivity. After surgical skin incision, the SLN was identified as a blue-stained and/or hot node (defined as the hottest node and any other node with at least 5-fold the background radioactivity). The removed SLNs were sent to the pathologist in buffered formalin at 10%. Definitive wide excision of the primary cutaneous melanoma was performed, if required, after the SNB procedure.
Pathologic Evaluation
The primary tumor and SLN were examined by the same pathologist (M.C.M.) with expertise in melanoma. The following histological features of the primary tumor were considered: histological subtype (superficial spreading melanoma, nodular melanoma, acrolentiginous melanoma, or other) Breslow thickness (millimeters), Clark level (II, III, IV, or V), number of mitoses per square millimeter (
5 or >5/ mm2), angiolymphatic invasion (present or absent), lymphocyte infiltration (absent, brisk, or nonbrisk), regression (present or absent), microsatellitosis (present or absent), ulceration (present or absent), and growth phase (vertical or radial).
Each formalin-fixed SLN was cut in half in correspondence of the hilum and then subdivided in fragments of 1- to 2-mm thick, including the entire node. All the fragments were embedded in paraffin to be then stained with hematoxylin and eosin and for immunohistochemistry; from each inclusion, 10 sections were prepared for histological and immunohis-tochemical (S-100 protein and HMB-45) examination.
Statistical Analysis
We assessed the ability of two models, logistic regression and SVM, to determine the association between the clinicopathologic independent variables and the SLN status (the binary dependent variable was positive or negative SLN). No variable selection was made (e.g., by a stepwise procedure), because our intent was to compare the prediction power of SVM and logistic regression by using in both cases the same available information. All statistical analyses and graphics were computed in the R environment (version 2.0.1).
Performance Assessing
The ability of both models (SVM and logistic regression) to correctly classify subjects was measured by means of leave-one-out cross-validation. In brief, we considered n samples of size n 1, in which for each subject i, i = 1...n is held out. In each step, the model is trained on the basis of n 1 subjects, and its capability of correctly predicting the classes is valued on the held-out subject i, who is counted as true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP), or FN. On the basis of these predicted classifications, we estimated accuracy [(TP + TN)/(TP + TN + FP + FN)], negative predictive value [NPV; TN/(TN + FN)], positive predictive value [PPV; TP/ (TP + FP)], sensitivity [TN/(TN + FP)], and specificity [TP/(TP + FN)].
Logistic Model
Logistic models extend classic linear models to accommodate for the binary response variable.27 In this study, the event of interest was defined as the presence of one or more positive SLNs.
The linear combinations of factors derived in the logistic regression model generate a risk score that is converted into a probability of a positive SLN by using the equation
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where Pis the probability of SLN positivity and RS indicates the risk score and is a linear combination of the chosen covariates. A decision rule is constructed to categorize the patients SLN as predicted to be positive if the probability is greater than a given cutoff and is predicted to be negative otherwise.
For each possible cutoff value, the sensitivity of the rule is the fraction of correct calls among the TPs, and the specificity is the fraction of correct calls among the TNs. Because the cutoff is varied, the sensitivity and specificity change and are plotted in the receiver operator characteristic curve, which is commonly adopted to evaluate diagnostic procedures. We considered the rule P > .5, which is well motivated and widely applied, although it is not the only possible choice: the cutoff can be moved upward or downward depending on the necessity and the specific problem.
A logistic regression model was first fit for each prognostic variable to test the correlation with the SLN status (univariate analysis). Then, a multivariate analysis was performed that considered all variables: this model was used both for describing the correlation of the variables with the SLN status and for predicting the SLN status. Different generalized logistic additive models were fit to take into account any possible nonlinear pattern of the numerical variables (age and tumor thickness) by means of penalized regression splines. Results were cross-validated by means of the leave-one-out method.
Support Vector Machine
The basic idea behind the SVM is to construct an optimal separating hyperplane between two classes (e.g., cases/controls and positive/negative).2830 In the two-dimensional case (i.e., if we consider only two explanatory variables), a hyperplane is a straight line: therefore, we are searching for the straight line (or hyperplane in more dimensions) that optimally separates the two classes, where optimally means that the distances of the hyperplane to the closest points of either class are maximized (support vectors). Hence, only these data are necessary to build the classification rule, whereas the rest of the training cases do not contribute to the expression of the dividing hyper-plane (Fig. 1
). This reveals a very important aspect of SVM, which is one of the reasons for its effectiveness as a classifier. The hyperplane is determined only by a relatively small number of cases that are close to the opposite group: the data points that are far away have no influence on the results, because it is clear as to which group they belong.
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As regards the selection of the optimal SVM model, we considered SVM with a radial basis Kernel function:
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Hence, given the training sample, the model depends only on the two parameters C and
, the latter being the dispersion parameter. In the space of these parameters, we searched for the model that maximizes the NPV; this best fit the purpose of our research, as discussed previously). One constraint (accuracy
80%) was introduced to avoid abnormal model fitting and to preserve clinical utility.
Adopting a standard leave-one-out training/testing scheme, the SVM was trained separately on training sets made up of all cases but one and then tested on the single held-out case. During the training phase, the SVM takes as input all independent variables from n 1 subjects and labels each case as belonging to either either one class (positive SLN) or the other (negative SLN). Each case is treated as a point in a high-dimensional feature space, where the number of independent variables (predictors) determines the dimensionality of the space. Then, the SVM learning model identifies a hyperplane in this space that best separates the positive and negative training examples. During the testing phase, the trained SVM is used to make predictions about a test samples membership in the class. The leave-one-out strategy allowed us to collect unbiased measurements of the ability of the SVM to classify all cases (n = 234).
| RESULTS |
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Logistic Regression
At univariate analysis, Breslow thickness, Clark level, ulceration, mitotic index, lymphocyte infiltration, vascular invasion, and microsatellitosis significantly (P < .01) correlated with SLN status (Table 2
), whereas patient age and sex, tumor growth phase, and histological regression did not have any significant effect on the SNB outcome. At multivariate analysis, only Breslow thickness, mitotic index, and microsatellitosis were independently associated with SLN status (Table 2
).
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to predict SLN status is illustrated in Fig. 4
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| DISCUSSION |
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Numerous studies have reported clinicopathologic factors that correlate with the SLN status.11,3140 The single factor that uniformly correlates with SLN status is the Breslow thickness of the primary lesion: as the Breslow depth increases, the probability of a positive SLN increases. Several reports have studied other primary melanoma pathologic features associated with SLN status. Microsatellitosis, vascular invasion, higher mitotic rate, vertical growth phase, age <60 years, Clark level greater than III, and ulceration have been reported to be significantly associated with a positive SLN, although with con-flicting results. Most studies focus on the correlation between single prognostic factors and SLN status: a
2 statistic is generally used to show differences between frequencies of SLN positivity in different subgroups, and sometimes a PPV is calculated. Unfortunately, none of these parameters can predict the SLN status with a statistical reliability of clinical value, either when they are used singularly or when a probabilistic model based on multivariate logistic regression is fitted to the data.41
SVM is a supervised statistical method that has received much attention in the medical field since the broad diffusion of DNA microarray technology42,43: however, to our knowledge, this is the first time that SVM has been applied for the analysis of clinicopathologic predictors of SLN status. This novel statistical approach is based on complex mathematical models aimed at recognizing patterns of behavior of the relationships between independent variables (i.e., clinicopathologic factors) and a binary dependent variable (i.e., SLN status).
In our series, which closely mirrors the experience published worldwide both in terms of patient/tumor characteristics and SNB outcome, the results of the univariate logistic regression analysis showed that Breslow thickness, mitotic rate, and microsatellitosis were correlated with the likelihood of SLN positivity. Then, to additionally exploit the prognostic potential of all available clinicopathologic variables, we applied multivariate logistic regression and SVM to build models predictive of SLN status.
Both logistic regression and SVM-based prediction analysis showed that, using the currently available predictors, the best PPVs (54% and 59%, respectively; data not shown) were too low to be of clinical value, because their prediction power is similar to that of a coin toss. These findings strengthen the idea that no current prediction system can reliably identify patients at higher risk of SLN positivity so that only these subjects undergo SNB. However, our results suggested another way to tackle this problem: the identification of patients with a high probability of harboring no metastasis in their SLNs. To this aim, an NPV (the probability that a patient who tests negative has no metastasis in the SLN) close to 100% is required for a test to be safely implemented in clinical practice, because any value <100% means that 100% NPV% (diagnostic error; Table 3
) of patients who test negative would not undergo SNB even though they had a metastatic SLN (FN cases). Consequently, we chose the logistic regression and SVM models that maximized the NPV (NPV-oriented model). Moreover, to be of practical usefulness, the ideal prognostic test should significantly reduce the number of SNBs presently performed: thus, from the statistical viewpoint, such a test should be characterized by a high sensitivity (the probability that a patient without SLN metastasis tests negative), which indicates how many SNBs would be correctly spared out of 100 procedures performed by using the current eligibility criteria (SNB percentage reduction; Table 3
).
In the light of these considerations, the results were still unsatisfactory with logistic regression: in fact, the NPV (82%) was unacceptably low, because it would lead to a diagnostic error rate (15%) unsuitable for clinical purposes. By contrast, the data obtained with SVM were definitely more encouraging, because the NPV (98%), sensitivity (94%), diagnostic error rate (1%), and SNB percentage reduction (60%) seem favorable enough to deserve further investigation. In fact, if these data were confirmed in larger series, SVM-based prediction might drastically change the current management of patients who are candidates for SNB because a significant proportion (60%) of patients who currently undergo SNB and have a high probability of having a negative SLN would correctly avoid the psychological/physical discomfort as well as the potential complications of an operation; consequently, the SNB costs presently supported by the health care system would significantly decrease.
As regards the issue of the low but definite risk (1%) of incorrectly submitting patients to observation (instead of SNB) with the described SVM model, two considerations can be made. First, it has been repeatedly reported that ultrasound scanning combined with fine-needle aspiration is a reliable method for the early detection of lymph node metastasis, at least when disease deposits are >2 mm but still clinically silent;25,26,4447 in addition, recent technological advances (e.g., proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy of fine-needle aspirate material) might further improve the reliability of such a strategy.48 Second, a potential development of the SVM-based prediction of SLN status is represented by the addition of molecular markers of tumor aggressiveness (e.g., expression of metastasis-related genes/proteins by primary melanoma) to the set of independent variables. This might significantly improve the performance of this test, thus further increasing the reliability of its clinical implementation. To validate this hypothesis, a large multicentric prospective study is under way on behalf of the Italian Melanoma Intergroup.
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
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Received for publication March 3, 2005. Accepted for publication January 12, 2006.
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